2022 WORLD CUP FIRST LOOK

Early power rankings of all 32 nations at the world's biggest sporting event.

Introduction

The 2022 World Cup in Qatar is setting up to be an extremely unique edition of the quadrennial sporting event. It will be the first hosted by a nation in the Arab World, the first since the COVID-19 pandemic started, and the first taking place during the winter (at least for the Northern Hemisphere). Plenty of justified controversy continues to overshadow the tournament, yet the 32 teams will arrive in November, as scheduled.
Ever since South Africa hosted when I was 8 years old, I've been absolutely infatuated with international football. While my two countries, Egypt and USA, haven't seen much success, I still enjoy keeping up with all of the nations. My qualifications for making these rankings include; predicting Germany in 2014 (winning me free ice cream through a Facebook competition), and hours upon hours of researching, data collecting, and friendly spectating.

Methodology

These rankings were made following a formula I made to eliminate some of the common confederation bias; the belief that certain nations are better simply based off of being in a region perceived to be stronger. The formula takes into account every international match since then the last World Cup in 2018, as well as FIFA rankings, group favorability, head-to-head success against the participating nations, and more. While the formula determines the numeric value for their rankings, I personally separated the nations into tiers that I felt best represented the narrative around the teams heading into November. I also sprinkle in some of my own predictions and expectations of the 32 teams to fill in some gaps.

HEADLINERS

Sitting on the throne, likely to stand on the pedestal

(1) Belgium

Belgium ranks highly in every single category. Highest win rate of the participating nations since 2018 (81.3%), is on top of the FIFA and UEFA rankings, and tons of recent experience against the field. After getting 3rd in Russia, they aren't just expected to make a Finals appearance, but to win the whole thing. Plus, they start off with an extremely favorable group.

(2) Brazil

The most decorated nation in World Cup history will enter Qatar with that legacy in mind. It'll be 20 years since they were last champions, which also happens to be the last team Asia hosted. Scarred by their catastrophic semifinals loss at home in 2014, and being eliminated by Belgium in 2018, Brazil's mission isn't just to add to the trophy case, but to seek vengeance.

(3) Argentina

While others may argue France here, Argentina might have the most momentum going into November. Also, one of the greatest footballers ever (if not the greatest) is still vying to be a World Cup champion. After barely falling short in the Finals of 2014, and only losing to the eventual champions in 2018, anything short of 1st may be considered a devastating failure.

CONTENDERS

The most prepared to upset the tournament favorites.

(4) France

My one outlying concern for France right now is their less than ideal international record in 2022, at 2-2-2 (too many twos). Otherwise, the reigning champions stood out in a win against Belgium last year, have the 3rd best win rate of the past 4 years, and a whole lot of star power. They look to be the third nation to repeat, and the first since the '58 and '62 Brazilian teams.

(5) Mexico

Mexico leads the participants in international matches played over the last 4 years (58). This synergy and experience will be very important for when they play the red-hot Argentines in their group match. On paper, they should fare well against most teams, but the curse of the fifth game, or quinto partido, will be the ultimate test for a well assembled and practiced squad.

(6) England

In the years since Russia 2018, England managed to generate the most hype in international football. They made a deep run in the UEFA European Championship, with fans prematurely exclaiming, "it's coming home," before losing to Italy in the finals. However, Italy shockingly failed to qualify, so England could have the last laugh if they win out. I think they have a chance.

GATEKEEPERS

The nations that separate the contenders from the pretenders

(7) USA

No, seriously, USMNT are better than most are willing to admit. I've always been critical of the team in years past, but this young squad could make a deep run. It will be a challenging group stage, but they should manage to close out games against any teams in the below tiers.

(8) Spain

Ranked 7th by FIFA in March, Spain has the potential to place very high. Unlike the other teams in this tier and above, Spain's best wins belong in tiers below. They've tied with Netherlands, and tied three times with Portugal, so their success may depend on how composed they can be in extra time.

(9) Netherlands

Taking games off of Belgium and England, Netherlands has already proven they can upset the top teams. On the other hand, they're lower in overall wins and overall matches played. They have the highest ceiling in this tier, but these red flags may result in rust or lack of synergy on the pitch.

(10) Portugal

Of the top UEFA teams, Portugal never seems to be recognized as the most dominant force. Still, they're a team no one's willing to count out, thanks to Ronaldo's prowess and leadership. Yet, in the last 3 World Cups, he hasn't gotten beyond the Round of 16. This may be his last chance.

BRACKET HOPEFULS

Not likely to make a deep run, but can at least make a big statement.

(11) Senegal

In their 3rd World Cup appearance, Senegal will be a very intriguing team. Notably in 2018, they were the first team eliminated by the fair-play tiebreaker, so they're still looking for a bracket appearance. Africa's best are in a great position to do so.

(12) Morocco

One of my favorite sleeper teams, and a likely crowd favorite. They've shown a lot of regional success, but their ability to take games off the rest of the world is unseen. This year, they lost 0-3 to USA, but have a chance to make a big statement with Belgium in their group.

(13) Japan

Despite being ranked below Iran by FIFA, Japan is being recognized as the biggest threat coming out of Asia. Winning their group is not out of the question for this very prepared team, as I expect them to at least win against Germany and Costa Rica.

(14) Denmark

Earlier this year, many were calling Denmark contenders and dark horses. With a win over France, the group favorite and defending champions, I understand the appeal. However, they've also been dominated in three meetings with Belgium. I'm not sold.

HIDDEN GEMS

Similar to the tier above, these teams aren't being talked about enough

(15) Iran

FIFA's #1 AFC team is the epitome of hidden with the 2nd least amount of matches played. They have the 4th best win rate, without beating any teams attending. There's good mystery and there's bad mystery... time will tell.

(16) Tunisia

In 2019, Tunisia beat Croatia, and in 2022 they won the Kirin Cup over Japan. This global success makes them an interesting candidate for a juicy upset. With the 4th most amount of matches played, Tunisia is ready for blood.

(17) Uruguay

A FIFA top 15 team shouldn't be this low. However, Uruguay ranked low in games played and win rate, not to mention their awful history with Brazil and Argentina. Maybe their win against Mexico this year was a sign of resurgence.

(18) Korea Republic

With consistent wins throughout their region, it will be interesting to see how Korea does against the rest of the world. However, of their infrequent chances to play outside of Asia, they've been demolished by Brazil twice.

UNDERACHIEVERS

Despite the hyped up potential, these teams could drastically disappoint.

(19) Canada

Ending their 36-year absence from the World Cup, Canada has shown in recent years that they can take wins off of the two titans of CONCACAF. This is some much needed momentum from an otherwise forgettable team. However, they are still coming from a lackluster confederation, and will struggle against a diverse group where every team has a shot at advancing.

(20) Germany

I usually love this team, but the disappointment still looms from their horrific attempt to be back-to-back champions in 2018. Since then, they have struggled to close out wins, and have fallen all the way to 9th in FIFA's UEFA rankings. However, if they manage to reverse the curse, I could see them performing as well as the nations in the bracket hopefuls tier.

(21) Serbia

The disappointment will come from Serbia's inability to make bracket for their fourth consecutive World Cup appearance. This is a team that has potential yet never seems to get the results. Their highlight from the past 4 years was a 2-1 win over Portugal in the qualifiers. Other than that, it has mainly been lackluster results, mostly against teams not even participating in Qatar.

DEEP SLEEPERS

Will be more competitive than many expect, but advancing will be difficult.

(22) Croatia

The Russia 2018 runner ups have certainly fallen from glory. In 9 meetings against the top 5 UEFA teams, they've recorded 1 win, and their win rate is lower than FIFA's 51st ranked Qatar. Their group is doable, but I lack faith.

(23) Cameroon

Their record against these nations over the last 4 years is 3 scoreless draws and 1 blowout loss. This leads me to believe they'll struggle a lot against teams with top scoring efficiency. Could get ugly with Brazil in their group.

(24) Saudia Arabia

Going 8-5-7 in 2019 drags their win rate to the bottom 5, but their 2021 record showed improvement at 10-2-2, just as good as anyone else in their region. Regardless, they'll need a miracle comparable to their sole bracket appearance in 1994.

(25) Switzerland

The Swiss have the worst win rate of attending UEFA teams. Yet, 2 teams advance out of their lackluster group. Behind Brazil, Switzerland has the highest demonstrated ceiling, with wins over France, USA and Portugal since 2021.

UNDERDOGS

All odds are against them, but that'll make them fun to cheer for.

(26) Qatar

The host nation hasn't taken this "free" slot for granted, frequently competing in friendlies and tournaments outside of Asia. Ironically, their only wins on the attendees are on AFC teams. At least they get to play Ecuador.

(27) Wales

The most I can say for Wales' sake is they've been very active in getting World Cup ready. The result is not a single win on participating teams. With ties against Belgium (x2), USA, Switzerland, and Croatia, they can still make things interesting.

(28) Poland

Fairly shocking for a nation with one of the most coveted footballers in the world. They haven't been able to put up great results against the top UEFA teams, recently losing 6-1 to Belgium. Maybe a change of scenery is all they need, with a non-UEFA group stage.

(29) Australia

In an exciting penalty shootout, featuring their eccentric goalkeeper, Australia became one of the last teams to qualify. They had the least amount of matches played after forgoing all of 2020 due to COVID-19. This team may surpass expectations, or fail miserably.

SEAT-FILLERS

also known as... Participation Award Recipients

(30) Ghana

A convincing victory against Qatar in 2020 is the lone highlight of this underwhelming Ghanaian team. They are currently FIFA's lowest ranked team out of the participating nations. Their win rate is only barely above .500, making their World Cup appearance a miracle in itself.

(31) Costa Rica

In a strong, defensive qualifying campaign, they allowed 8 goals in 15 matches, beating USA and Canada in the process. For comparison, Mexico only got as far as tying with both, and allowed 8 goals in 14 matches. As the only team with a win rate under .500, the magic is bound to wear off soon.

(32) Ecuador

Ecuador has historically been bullied by South America, with this being their 4th World Cup qualification to their name. They've had a ton of close matches against their region rivals, but their only win in attendance is Uruguay. Every positive result has been unconvincing, but at least they're attainable.

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